Atyrau Oil & Gas
A New Phase for Tengiz After the Launch of the Future Growth Project
Chevron remains one of the largest foreign investors in Kazakhstan's oil and gas sector and a key participant in two of the country's largest energy projects, Tengiz and Karachaganak. In 2025, Chevron completed the Future Growth Project (FGP) at the Tengiz field to increase oil production. Analysts at Teniz Capital Investment Banking regularly track key sectors of Kazakhstan’s economy and publish industry reviews. Zhasulan Ospanov, an independent director at Teniz Capital Asset Management, told Petroleum what benefits Kazakhstan can expect from modernizing the field. Teniz Capital Asset Management is part of the Teniz Capital group.
– Zhasulan, what is the significance of the FGP for the Tengiz field and Kazakhstan’s oil sector?
– The project marks a fundamentally new phase of development for the company and for Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry as a whole. It is the third crude processing and treatment unit at Tengiz, significantly expanding crude processing capacity and gas reinjection capability. The FGP is a logical continuation of the Wellhead Pressure Management Project, which focused on optimizing wellhead pressure and improving production efficiency. Together, the two projects enable an increase in production of roughly 260,000 barrels of oil per day. As a result, total output at Tengiz could approach one million barrels of oil equivalent per day, placing the field among the world's largest oil assets.
For Kazakhstan, the project is a major driver of higher crude exports and budget revenues, and it strengthens the country’s position as one of Eurasia’s leading oil-producing centers.
– How will completion of the project affect Chevron’s position in Kazakhstan?
– Kazakhstan is of strategic importance to Chevron’s international business. According to industry analysts’ estimates, the company’s projects in the country account for up to 20–25% of its international production. This makes the Kazakhstan–Chevron relationship one of the largest and most resilient energy partnerships in the global oil market. The launch of the FGP will increase Chevron’s oil output and free cash flow, further reinforcing Kazakhstan’s role as one of the company’s key international assets within its global portfolio.
– How large is the FGP for Tengiz from an investment standpoint?
– The total cost of the FGP is estimated at roughly $48 bln, making it one of the largest oil and gas projects of the past several decades. After a decade-long investment cycle, Tengiz is entering a new phase, shifting from capital spending to production growth and free cash flow generation.
– Are there already production results following start-up?
– Yes. The results are already reflected in operating statistics. In 2025, Tengizchevroil produced about 39 mln tons of oil, or 311 mln barrels, one of the highest figures in the project’s history. In the coming years, Tengiz could become one of the main drivers of Chevron’s international production growth and a key source of Kazakhstan’s export crude.
– The Caspian Pipeline Consortium remains the main export route. What risks do you see in transportation logistics?
– Heavy reliance on a single route creates strategic risks. This is why Kazakhstan is actively considering developing alternative export corridors, including the route through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Production growth following the FGP start-up increases the urgency of diversifying export logistics.
– Does Chevron plan to expand its presence in Kazakhstan beyond upstream oil production?
– Yes. The company is considering developments in petrochemicals and gas processing. During the Chevron CEO’s visit to Astana in 2025, the parties discussed the construction of a polyethylene complex with a capacity of about 1.25 mln tons per year. This project could become one of the largest petrochemical facilities in the region.
– What other projects are being discussed?
– In addition, construction of a new gas processing plant at Karachaganak with a capacity of 4.0 to 4.5 bln cubic meters of gas per year is under consideration. The objective is to increase domestic gas processing and strengthen Kazakhstan’s domestic gas supply. The project is currently at the stage of technical preparation and alignment of key implementation parameters.
– Risk is, of course, unavoidable. What risks for Chevron do you see?
– Chevron’s main risks in Kazakhstan include geopolitical factors, potential revision of agreement terms, and oil price volatility. A material geopolitical risk remains Kazakhstan’s high dependence on the export infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transits Russian territory, making shipments sensitive to regional political and infrastructure dynamics. Another source of uncertainty is negotiation risk, given that Kazakhstan has initiated major disputes with international consortia on other oil and gas projects, which could increase pressure on the terms of existing agreements. Finally, the key macroeconomic factor remains volatility in global oil prices, since oil market dynamics largely determine Chevron’s profitability and cash flow.
– In addition to your high-quality analytics, your investment bank has also built a strong reputation as an underwriter that successfully supports offerings by corporate and quasi-sovereign issuers. For example, it was your team that arranged the U.S. dollar bond issuance for the international development institution, the Black Sea Trade and Development Bank. Could you share your achievements from last year in this area?
– In 2025, our team supported all major sovereign bond issues of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as well as those of quasi-sovereign companies, for example, the Baiterek holding. It is encouraging that our peers recognize our results: Teniz Capital received a KASE award as “Best Financial Adviser” and won the “First Deal on the NTPro Platform” nomination from the KASE clearing center.
Today, Kazakhstani businesses increasingly view the bond market as an alternative source of funding. Over the past two years, we have helped small and mid-sized businesses raise about 98 billion tenge through bond issues on KASE and AIX. These include companies from various sectors of the economy, including construction, agriculture, and extractive industries.
– As I understand it, your team was recognized by Astana International Exchange as “Best in Working with Retail Investors” for the Tabys Pro investment app. Could you tell us more about that?
– The Tabys Pro by Teniz Capital mobile app is an ecosystem where an investor can execute a trade, exchange currency, receive fresh analytics and expert recommendations, and share information. The app enables seamless deposits and withdrawals. Maximum digitalization makes Tabys Pro's fees among the lowest in the market. By the way, we were the first in Kazakhstan to offer investors so-called "fractional shares," allowing them to invest in global markets by buying NVDIA or Apple for as little as 1 dollar. The app also allows users to buy bonds by yield, not only by price, which makes Tabys Pro unique. The Tabys Pro investment app also includes a Halal mode, which helps track whether a security complies with Islamic principles.
– Thank you for an interesting conversation!